3 qaab oo lagu weerari karo warshadaha nuclear-ka Iiraan.

0
israel and iran flag

In maamulka Donald Trump uu meesha ka baxo waxay Iiraan ka soo fujisay neef laakiin wali waa in ay aad u feejignaato.

Qaar ka mid ah dadka ku sugan gobolka waxay aad uga baqayeen in maalmaha ugu dambeeya ee uu Trump xafiiska joogo uu xooggiisa isugu geyn doono cadaadiska Iiraan, uuna weerarro waaweyn la beegsan doono warshadaha nuclear-ka farsameeya ee dalkaas iyo bartilmaameedyo kale.

Warar bishii November kasoo baxay magaalada Washington ayaa sheegayay in madaxweynaha Mareykanka uu arrintaas ka fakarayay ka hor inta aysan la hadlin la taliyeyaashiisa oo ku boorriyay in uusan tallaabo noocaas ah qaadin.

Taas lidkeedana, madaxweynaha la doortay Joe Biden ayaa caddeeyay in Mareykanku uu doonayo sidii uu dib ugu noqon lahaa heshiiskii nuclear-ka Iiraan ee la saxiixay sanadkii 2015-kii, kaasoo micnihiisa uu noqon karo in laga noqdo go’aankii cunaqabateynta loogu soo rogay Iiraan, sidoo kalena la fasaxo lacagaha Tehran ka xayiran si taas baddalkeeda ay iyaguna heshiiska ugu hoggaansamaan.

Sidaas darteed, hadda Iiraan miyey ka badbaadday in la weeraro?

A Boeing KC-135 Stratotanker refuels an Israeli Air Force F-15 Eagle fighter jet flying in formation with two others, during an air show at Hatzerim base in the Negev desert (29 June 2017)
Qoraalka sawirka,Wasiirka Gaashaandhigga ee Israa’iil ayaa sheegay “in dowladdiisu ay dooneyso in tallaabo militari laga qaado Iiraan”

Haddii aan su’aashaas uga jawaabno hal eray, maya. Israa’iil ayaa wali si aad ah uga walaacsan Iiraan, walwalkeeduna ma aha oo kaliya mid ku saabsan nuclear-ka ay howlaha rayidka u sameysaneyso Iiraan balse waxay sidoo kale isha ku heysaa hubka kale ee ay Tehran sameysaneyso iyo horumarka ay ka sii gaareyso dhinaca gantaallada.

Maalintii Khamiista, Wasiirka Gaashaandhigga ee Israa’iil, Benny Gantz, ayaa isagoo ka hadlaya horumarinta barnaamijka nuclear-ka laga soo xigtay inuu yidhi: “Way caddahay in Israa’iil ay dooneyso in miiska lasoo saaro tallaabo militari. Arrintaas waxay u baahan tahay dhaqaale iyo maalgalin, aniguna waxaan ka shaqeynayaa sidii ay taas ku dhici lahayd.”

Israa’iil, oo Iiraan ay ku dhawaaqday in ay tahay cadowgeeda, ayaa aaminsan in haddii ay Tehran gacanta ku dhigto hal bambo oo nuclear ah ay ku burburin doonto jirintaanka Israa’iil, waxayna Tel Aviv adduunka si joogto ah ugu boorrisaa in laga hor istaago Iiraan helitaanka nuclear-ka ka hor inta aysan xaaladdu faraha ka bixin.

Dowladda Iiraan ayaa mar walba ku adkeysata in barnaamijkeeda nuclear-ka uu yahay mid nabad ah, laakiin tallaabooyinkii ugu dambeeyay ee ay ku xoojisay bacriminta uranium-ta – oo ah arrin kasoo horjeedda heshiiskii 2015-kii – ayaa abuurtay cabsi dheeraad ah iyo qeylo dhaan.

Sanadkii 1981-kii, Israa’iil waxay ka shakisay in madaxweynihii Ciraaq, Saadaam Xuseen, uu raadinayay hubka nuclear-ka.

Howlgalkii lagu magacaabo Babylon, waxay Israa’iil ku guuleysatay in weerarro ay fuliyeen diyaaradaheeda F15 iyo F16 lagu burburiyo dhammaan warshaddii nuclear-ka Ciraaq ee Osirak.

Shan iyo labaatan sano kaddib, sanadkii 2007-dii, howlgal kaas la mid ah ayey ku fulisay Suuriya, waxayna halkaas ku burburisay warshad qarsoodi ahayd oo ku taallay meel u dhow magaalada Deir al-Zour. Waxaa weerarkaas lagu beegay wax yar ka hor inta aan warshaddaas la howlgalinin.

Il maqabato

Laakiin Iraan aad bay uga fog tahay in la bartilmaameedsado, marka la eego masaafaha ay u jirto Israa’iil, meelaha loo mari karo iyo waliba difaaca dhinaca hawada ee ay sameysatay Iiraan.

Su;aal ayaa ku jirta in Israa’iil ay kaligeed ku guuleysn karto weerar ka dhan ah Iiraan oo uusan Mareykanku shaqo ku lahayn – maadaama la aaminsan yahay in maamulka Biden uusan ku degdegi doonin tallaabo noocaas ah.

Satellite photograph showing activity at Iran's Natanz nuclear facility (January 2021)
Qoraalka sawirka,Sawirro uu qaaday Satellite ayaa muujinaya warshadda Natanz ee dhawaan laga dhisay dhulka hoostiisa oo ay Iiraan ku bacrimiso nuclear-keeda

Madaama ay Iiraan ogtahay in warshadeheeda nuclear-ka ay khatar ugu jiraan weerarro uga imaan kara Mareykanka, Israa’iil iyo xitaa dalalka Khaliijka ee cadowgeeda ah, waxay lacag badan ku bixisay in ay warshadahaas ku aasto meel aad u fog oo dhulka hoostiisa ah oo waliba buuro hoostood ah.

Inkastoo warshadaha nuclear-ka Iiraan ay yihiin kuwo howlaha shacabka kaliya awooda, haddana waxay ku dhistay goobo ku dhow xarumaheeda milatariga ee muhiimka ah.

Xaqiiqdii Iiraan muddo dheer ayey isku diyaarineysay suurtagalnimada in dagaal lagu soo qaadi karo, xarumeheeda hubka lagu sameeyo ee dhulka hoostiisa ku yaallana waxay sii noqonayaan kuwo aan loo gudbi karin ama la gaari karin.

Laakiin haddana sidaas oo ay tahay, warshadaha nuclear-ka ee Iiraan wali waxay u nugul yihiin in laga weeraro saddex meelood.

1- Weerar muuqda

“Warshadaha hubka ee Iiraan bir kama sameysna,” ayuu yidhi Mark Fitzpatrick, oo ka tirsan hayadda caalamiga ah ee daraaseysa istiraatiijiyadda (IISS) oo sidoo kalena khabiir ku ah xakameynta hubka.

“Warshadda Natanz waxay u nugushahay in lagu weeraro bambooyinka waxyaabaha adag burburiya ama dhulka hoostiisa u sii gudba. Tusaale ahaan labo bambo oo noocaas ah ayaa loo adeegsan karaa, si midda hore ay u qoddo tan labaadna gudaha ugu sii dhaadhacdo oo xitaa ugu yaraan ay gariiriso qalabka jilicsan ee nuclear-ka oo marka la dhaqaajiyo sii qarxaya.”

Laakiin Iiraan waa waddan dhul ballaaran leh warshadaheeda nuclear-kana waxay ku fidisay dhul baaxad leh.

Fordo nuclear site
Qoraalka sawirka,Iiraan waxay bishan dib u billowday bacriminta uranium-ta oo ay ku kordhisay 20%

Xilli hore oo sanadkii 2012-kii ah ayey khubaro sheegeen in warshadda lagu bacrimiyo uranium-ta ee Fordo ay ku aasan tahay dhul hoos u qodan 80 mitir oo kusii dhex jira buuro, lagana yaabo in xitaa aysan waxba u dhimi karin banbooyinka aadka wax u burburiya ee uu Mareykanka kaligiis heysto.

“Hoos u qodnaanta Fordo wuxuu ka ilaalin karaa bambooyinkaas, laakiin kama ilaalin karo dhul gariirka ay sababayaan,” ayuu yidhi Mark Fitzpatrick.

2- In dadka la weeraro

Arrintan haddaba way socotaa.

Sirdoonka Israa’iil ee loo yaqaanno Muusaad ayaa shabakad qeyrul caadi ah ka sameystay gudaha Iiraan, waxaana halkaas uga shaqeeya xubno aad u hela xogaha muhiimka ah.

Xogta ay helaan waxay gaartay heer ay ogaadaan wax walba oo ku saabsan Seynisyahankii darajadiisu sarreysay ee milatariga, oo lagu magacaabi jiray Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, gaar ahan markii uu kolonyo aad loo ilaalinayo ku marayay waddo ku taalla bariga magaalada Tehran 27-kii bishii November. Isla maalintaas ayaa la dilay seynisyahankaas, dadkii weerarka ku qaadayna waxay taako taako ula socdeen meelaha uu marayay iyo daqiiqadaha uu ku beegnaa.

File photo of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh
Qoraalka sawirka,Mohsen Fakhrizadeh waxaa loo yaqaannay inuu ahaa “aabihii barnaamijka nuclear-ka Iiraan”

Warariskhilaafsan ayaa kasoo baxay sida seynisyahanka loo weeraray maalintaas.

Iiraan waxay sheegtay in dilkiisa loo adeegsaday qori darandoorri u dhaca oo laga hagayay satellite-ka. Ilo-wareedyo kalena waxay sheegeen in ay howlgalkaas fuliyeen xubno ka tirsan sirdoonka Israa’iil ooislamarkiiba baxsaday walina aan gacanta lagu soo dhigin.

Sidey ahaataba, Fakhrizadeh – oo loo yaqaannay in uu ahaa “aabihii barnaamijka nuclear-ka Iiraan”, sirdoonka Mareukankana ay sheegeen in uu horumar ballaan gaarsiiyay aqoonta ay Iiraan u leedahay sameynta hubka nuclear-ka – waa lagu guuleystay in la dilo.

Is’raa’iil si rasmi ah ugama aysan hadlin ciddii dilkiisa ka dambeysay.

Dhacdadaas ka hor, intii u dhaxeysay 2010-kii ilaa 2012-kii, afar seynisyahan oo ka mid ahaa kuwa ugu waaweyn ee ku howlanaa barnaamijka nuclearka Iiraan ayaa lagu dilay gudaha waddankooda, qaarkoodna waxaa dilalkooda loo adeegsaday gawaari walxaha qarxa laga soo buuxiyay.

Sidoo kale, Israa’iil ma aysan xaqiijinin mana aysan beeninin in ay seynisyahannadaas iyadu dishay.

Laakiin dilalkaas waxay caddeynayaan in kuwa fuliya dilalka qorsheysan ay howlgalladooda ku guuleysan karaan iyadoo amniga dowladda uu aad u sugan yahay, ayna meesha ka saari karaan ragga maskaxda u ah sidii ay Iiraan ku gaari lahayd tiknoolojiyadda nuclear-ka.

3- Weerar dhinaca internet-ka ah

Waxaa jira dagaal hadda socda balse aan lagu dhawaaqin oo dhanka Internet-ka ah. Wuxuu dagaalkaas u dhaxeeyaa Iiraan oo dhinac ah iyo dhinaca kale oo ay ku mideysan yihiin Mareykanka, Israa’iil iyo Sacuudi Carabiya.

Sanadkii 2010-kii, qalab yar oo qarsoodi ah ayaa lagu rakibay kumbuyuutarrada barnaamijka nuclearka Iiraan lagu hormariyo, sidaasna waxaa lagula wareegay maamulka barnaamijkaas iyadoo Iiraan aysan wax war ah ka heynin. Muddo sannado ah ayaa dib loo dhigay horumarkii laga gaari lahaa bacriminta nuclear-ka Iiraan, gaar ahaan warshadda Natanz..

A view of a damaged building at Iran's Natanz nuclear facility, in Isfahan, Iran (2 July 2020)
Qoraalka sawirka,Iiraan waxay sheegtay in dabkii warshadda nuclear-ka ee Natanz ka kacay bishii July 2020 uu ahaa mid si ulakac ah loogu burburinayay

Weerarkaas dhinaca internet-ka ah waxaa lasoo tabiyay in ay ka dambeysay Israa’iil, inkastoo la rumeysan yahay in weerarkaas ay iska kaashadeen khubaro isugu jira Israa’iil iyo Mareykan.

Iiraan durba way aar goosatay, waxayna ku guuleysatay in ay qalab si qarsoodi ah ugu rakibto hannaanka lagu hago warshadda saliidda soo saarta ee Sacuudiga, taas oo ay kala wareegtay 30,000 oo kumbuyuutar. Tallaabadaas waxay Iiraan khalkhal wey ku galisay guud ahaan wax soo saarkii saliidda ee Sacuudiga.

Weerarro kale ayaa sii daba socday.

Halis sii socota

Heshiiskii nuclear-ka ee 2015-kii – tallaabadii sida wadajirka ah la isugu waafaqay waxay ahayd – waxay ahayd in la hakiyo bacriminta nuclear-ka Iiraan.

A handout photo showing Iranian President Hassan Rouhani (C) and the head of the Atomic Energy Organisation of Iran, Ali Akbar Salehi (R), inspecting nuclear technology in Tehran, Iran (9 April 2019)
Qoraalka sawirka,Dowladda Iiraan waxay ku adkeysatay in barnaamijkeeda nuclear-ka uu yahay mid nabadeysan

Laakiin Israa’iil iyo Sacuudiga way saluugsanaayeen heshiiskaas, sababtoo ah waxay u arkayeen mid ku saabsan nuclear-ka kaliya balse aan xakameyn karin gantaallada ay Iiraan sameysaneyso.

Maanta, labadaas waddanka taageero buuran uma hayaan rajada uu Biden ka qabo in uu dib usoo celiyo heshiiskaas, in walaacooda oo dhan wax laga qabanayo mooyaane.

Ma jirto cid dooneysa in uu dagaal kale ka qarxo Khaliijka. Xitaa weerarkii gantaallada ee 2019-kii lagu qaadday warshadda saliidda ee Sacuudiga, oo lagu eedeeyay Iiraan iyo xulafadeeda, wali wax aargoosi ah lagama sameynin.

Laakiin mar haddiiba uu jiro shaki ku aaddan in Iiraan ay si qarsoodi ah u sameysaneyso madaxyada hubka nuclear-ka, waxaa maskaxda lagu heynayaa in weerar lagu qaado warshadeheeda nuclear-ka uu xilli kasta dhici karo.

LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here